SECOND BASE:
Howie Kendrick (ADP 114)
Getting no love from drafters after finishing last year as the 6th-ranked second baseman. Maybe it's because he doesn't stand out in any one category, but he's in his prime, contributes in every category and the lineup has improved around him. He'll give you similar stats to Brandon Phillips but 60 picks later.
Jason Kipnis (ADP 185)
What's not to love about Kipnis, he might be the steal of the draft at this ADP. Power and speed with a batting average that won't hurt you. He's young, so there's risk, but I expect at least a 15/15 season with a .270 average. His runs & RBI will determine the difference between him and Brandon Phillips or Ben Zobrist.
Jemile Weeks (ADP 194)
Rickie's little brother is a popular sleeper after hitting .300 last year with 22 steals in only 90 games. He finished ranked 12th among second basemen despite the short season. While he probably won't hit .300 and has very little power, he should hit .290 and swipe 30 bags. The Oakland AAA's lineup won't help his counting stats, but those steals really add up in roto leagues. Should finish the year as a top 10 second baseman but he's being drafted 15th.
Jose Altuve (ADP 237)
The poor man's Jemile Weeks. Worth a flier for your MI spot. After Altuve, the position gets really thin and you'll have to go with Aviles, Giavotella or Tyler Greene, who probably have no place in a 12 team mixed league.
Overrated at second base:
Brandon Phillips (ADP 53), Ryan Roberts (155), Dustin Ackley (171)
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Saturday, March 17, 2012
2012 First Base Sleeperz™
Sleeperz™ are players who should outperform their draft position.
My analysis is based on 5x5 roto, non-keeper, 10-12 team mixed leagues. ESPN Average Draft Position in parentheses.
FIRST BASE:
Adam Dunn (ADP 203)
Yes, last year was an epic disaster, and he killed me personally in a big money league. But last year's failure is this year's discount. Over the seven seasons before 2011, Dunn's minimum was 38 home runs, and he plays in arguably the best hitters park in baseball. Everyone is in love with Paul Goldschmidt (ADP 190), but wait another round (or two) and get the guy who's already put up monster power seasons at the major league level seven times. If you can live with the low batting average, there is a lot of value here. Let Goldschmidt do it once before paying for it.
Kendrys Morales (ADP 212)
I loved Kendrys in 2009 and he rewarded me with a monster season. He continued in 2010 before his ridiculous fluke injury. The thought of him batting 5th every day behind Phat Albert has me drooling. The only thing that can derail it is health, so keep an eye on the latest updates. If Kendrys is healthy I don't see Vernon Wells or Bobby Abreu stealing many of his at bats. Kendrys gives you the power/batting average combo that is hard to find. The only player this late with a shot at .300/30/100.
Ike Davis (ADP 213)
Another guy whose value has been kept down because of fluke injuries. Forget the Valley Fever, he has experienced no symptoms and seems fine. At this price I like Ike and the new dimensions at Citi Field will help his power. His underlying numbers are so solid, and he has room to grow. .275/20/80 floor.
Lucas Duda (ADP 215)
Good stick and the shorter fences help. In certain leagues you may be able to handcuff him to Ike Davis. If Duda gets to play he is a cheaper version of Gaby Sanchez (ADP 170). His underlying stats aren't that different from Ike Davis, maybe with less upside, and his glove could hurt.
Brandon Belt (ADP 233)
Playing time is the issue but if he plays, he's the poor man's Goldschmidt - not the same raw power but going 40+ picks later. This might be a year early on Belt so don't reach for him, but you have to like his approach. He knows how to take a walk, which ends up translating into roto numbers sooner or later.
Justin Smoak (ADP 260)
Of all the first basemen going undrafted in 10 team leagues, The Smoak Monster has the best shot at fantasy relevance. Not much positive about his stats the last two seasons, but the pedigree is there and his lineup has improved. Textbook post-post-hype sleeper.
Overrated at first base:
Michael Young (ADP 81), Freddie Freeman (ADP 122) , Adam Lind (ADP 135), Carlos Lee (ADP 141), Ryan Howard (ADP 158)
My analysis is based on 5x5 roto, non-keeper, 10-12 team mixed leagues. ESPN Average Draft Position in parentheses.
FIRST BASE:
Adam Dunn (ADP 203)
Yes, last year was an epic disaster, and he killed me personally in a big money league. But last year's failure is this year's discount. Over the seven seasons before 2011, Dunn's minimum was 38 home runs, and he plays in arguably the best hitters park in baseball. Everyone is in love with Paul Goldschmidt (ADP 190), but wait another round (or two) and get the guy who's already put up monster power seasons at the major league level seven times. If you can live with the low batting average, there is a lot of value here. Let Goldschmidt do it once before paying for it.
Kendrys Morales (ADP 212)
I loved Kendrys in 2009 and he rewarded me with a monster season. He continued in 2010 before his ridiculous fluke injury. The thought of him batting 5th every day behind Phat Albert has me drooling. The only thing that can derail it is health, so keep an eye on the latest updates. If Kendrys is healthy I don't see Vernon Wells or Bobby Abreu stealing many of his at bats. Kendrys gives you the power/batting average combo that is hard to find. The only player this late with a shot at .300/30/100.
Ike Davis (ADP 213)
Another guy whose value has been kept down because of fluke injuries. Forget the Valley Fever, he has experienced no symptoms and seems fine. At this price I like Ike and the new dimensions at Citi Field will help his power. His underlying numbers are so solid, and he has room to grow. .275/20/80 floor.
Lucas Duda (ADP 215)
Good stick and the shorter fences help. In certain leagues you may be able to handcuff him to Ike Davis. If Duda gets to play he is a cheaper version of Gaby Sanchez (ADP 170). His underlying stats aren't that different from Ike Davis, maybe with less upside, and his glove could hurt.
Brandon Belt (ADP 233)
Playing time is the issue but if he plays, he's the poor man's Goldschmidt - not the same raw power but going 40+ picks later. This might be a year early on Belt so don't reach for him, but you have to like his approach. He knows how to take a walk, which ends up translating into roto numbers sooner or later.
Justin Smoak (ADP 260)
Of all the first basemen going undrafted in 10 team leagues, The Smoak Monster has the best shot at fantasy relevance. Not much positive about his stats the last two seasons, but the pedigree is there and his lineup has improved. Textbook post-post-hype sleeper.
Overrated at first base:
Michael Young (ADP 81), Freddie Freeman (ADP 122) , Adam Lind (ADP 135), Carlos Lee (ADP 141), Ryan Howard (ADP 158)
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Starting pitcher sleeperz for 2011
Because there are so many starting pitchers, and because pitching performance is so volatile from year to year, there are always plenty of bargains. In mixed leagues, I almost never pay for the top aces, since it's quite possible to build a staff of underrated starters. Focus on low WHIP, high strikeout pitchers and hope that the wins come.
In mixed leagues, here are 33 underrated starters to choose from. Investigate them and decide for yourself. Don't reach, just let them come to you and voila, you'll have your bargain pitching staff. Number in parentheses is the player's ESPN Average Draft Position. I put an asterisk next to my favorite sleeper picks.
Tier 1
Justin Verlander (40)
Ubaldo Jimenez (48)
Cole Hamels (60)
Dan Haren (62)
David Price (69)
Matt Cain (77)
Francisco Liriano* (88) - 28 years old, can still get better
Max Scherzer* (101) - struggled early in 2010, still finished with awesome numbers. About to break out.
Tier 2
Brett Anderson (134)
Colby Lewis (145)
Hiroki Kuroda (148)
Dan Hudson (150)
Tier 3
Brandon Morrow (165)
Josh Beckett (167)
Ricky Nolasco (169)
Jhoulys Chacin* (175) - lots of K's, good command, everything points to more improvement this year
Madison Bumgarner (179)
Tier 4
Ricky Romero (193)
Brian Matusz* (198) - has the pedigree, and showed improvement throughout his rookie year in the AL East
Jake Peavy (207)
James Shields (209)
Gio Gonzalez (211)
Tier 5
Ian Kennedy (213)
Jordan Zimmermann (220)
Javy Vazquez* (224) - back in the NL East, where he racked up 238 K with a 1.08 WHIP in 2009
Gavin Floyd (233)
Tier 6 (after pick 260):
James McDonald
Scott Baker
Erik Bedard
Mike Minor* - youngster has the pedigree, lots of K's, very few walks, great situation
Derek Holland
Homer Bailey
In mixed leagues, here are 33 underrated starters to choose from. Investigate them and decide for yourself. Don't reach, just let them come to you and voila, you'll have your bargain pitching staff. Number in parentheses is the player's ESPN Average Draft Position. I put an asterisk next to my favorite sleeper picks.
Tier 1
Justin Verlander (40)
Ubaldo Jimenez (48)
Cole Hamels (60)
Dan Haren (62)
David Price (69)
Matt Cain (77)
Francisco Liriano* (88) - 28 years old, can still get better
Max Scherzer* (101) - struggled early in 2010, still finished with awesome numbers. About to break out.
Tier 2
Brett Anderson (134)
Colby Lewis (145)
Hiroki Kuroda (148)
Dan Hudson (150)
Tier 3
Brandon Morrow (165)
Josh Beckett (167)
Ricky Nolasco (169)
Jhoulys Chacin* (175) - lots of K's, good command, everything points to more improvement this year
Madison Bumgarner (179)
Tier 4
Ricky Romero (193)
Brian Matusz* (198) - has the pedigree, and showed improvement throughout his rookie year in the AL East
Jake Peavy (207)
James Shields (209)
Gio Gonzalez (211)
Tier 5
Ian Kennedy (213)
Jordan Zimmermann (220)
Javy Vazquez* (224) - back in the NL East, where he racked up 238 K with a 1.08 WHIP in 2009
Gavin Floyd (233)
Tier 6 (after pick 260):
James McDonald
Scott Baker
Erik Bedard
Mike Minor* - youngster has the pedigree, lots of K's, very few walks, great situation
Derek Holland
Homer Bailey
Monday, March 14, 2011
Outfield Sleeperz for 2011
Here are some outfielders that should outperform their price, based on ESPN average draft position (ADP). Based on a 5 x 5 redraft league.
Player (ESPN ADP):
Nick Markakis (137) - better lineup this year. Unsexy but valuable, and if he adds a few HR you're golden.
Rajai Davis (143) - comparable stats to Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, or Brett Gardner, but 30 picks later.
Travis Snider (180) - 30 HR, 10 SB upside
Jason Kubel (208) - expect slight BA rebound. Can bench vs lefties
Jose Tabata (217) - a little young but upside
Dexter Fowler (226) - a little young but upside
Julio Borbon (227) - slated to start in CF, speed to burn
Coco Crisp (230)
Seth Smith (237) - Hawpe is gone. More PT. Can bench vs lefties
Will Venable (260) - power/speed upside for deep leagues
Peter Bourjos (260) - should get you 10 HR, 20 SB. Glove will keep him in the lineup
Michael Brantley (260)
Alex Gordon (260) - someday he'll be productive. Too bad it won't be at 3B
Player (ESPN ADP):
Nick Markakis (137) - better lineup this year. Unsexy but valuable, and if he adds a few HR you're golden.
Rajai Davis (143) - comparable stats to Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, or Brett Gardner, but 30 picks later.
Travis Snider (180) - 30 HR, 10 SB upside
Jason Kubel (208) - expect slight BA rebound. Can bench vs lefties
Jose Tabata (217) - a little young but upside
Dexter Fowler (226) - a little young but upside
Julio Borbon (227) - slated to start in CF, speed to burn
Coco Crisp (230)
Seth Smith (237) - Hawpe is gone. More PT. Can bench vs lefties
Will Venable (260) - power/speed upside for deep leagues
Peter Bourjos (260) - should get you 10 HR, 20 SB. Glove will keep him in the lineup
Michael Brantley (260)
Alex Gordon (260) - someday he'll be productive. Too bad it won't be at 3B
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Infield Sleeperz for 2011
Without further ado, let's get down to business. These are my picks for the top sleeperz of 2011. Sleeperz are players who outperform their price. In other words, they are significantly underrated by average draft position (ADP). I prefer auctions, but dollar values are very hard to compare from league to league due to keeper inflation and different scoring systems. For the purposes of my analysis I am assuming 5 x 5 rotisserie, 10 or 12 team mixed non-keeper leagues.
First base (ESPN ADP):
Prince Fielder (25)
Kendry Morales (75)
Ike Davis (211)
Justin Smoak (231)
Matt LaPorta (260)
Second base:
Brandon Phillips (60)
Ben Zobrist (96)
Aaron Hill (113)
Gordon Beckham (128)
Chone Figgins (130)
Shortstop:
These guys are all pretty close, just ranked in order of ADP. In other words, I'd much rather have Lowrie at 260 than Hardy at 208.
J.J. Hardy (208)
Ryan Theriot (219)
Asdrubal Cabrera (220)
Yunel Escobar (224)
Jed Lowrie (260)
Third base:
Casey McGeehee (90)
Mark Reynolds (154)
David Freese (226)
Danny Valencia (260)
Moustakas (260) - probably starts in AAA
Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (218)
Chris Iannetta (223)
J.P. Arencibia (231)
John Jaso (260)
Jesus Montero (260) - if he plays
First base (ESPN ADP):
Prince Fielder (25)
Kendry Morales (75)
Ike Davis (211)
Justin Smoak (231)
Matt LaPorta (260)
Second base:
Brandon Phillips (60)
Ben Zobrist (96)
Aaron Hill (113)
Gordon Beckham (128)
Chone Figgins (130)
Shortstop:
These guys are all pretty close, just ranked in order of ADP. In other words, I'd much rather have Lowrie at 260 than Hardy at 208.
J.J. Hardy (208)
Ryan Theriot (219)
Asdrubal Cabrera (220)
Yunel Escobar (224)
Jed Lowrie (260)
Third base:
Casey McGeehee (90)
Mark Reynolds (154)
David Freese (226)
Danny Valencia (260)
Moustakas (260) - probably starts in AAA
Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (218)
Chris Iannetta (223)
J.P. Arencibia (231)
John Jaso (260)
Jesus Montero (260) - if he plays
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Early fantasy surprises, Part 2. Pitchers
It's probably not a coincidence that 4 out of these 5 pitchers are in the NL, or that 4 out of 5 make their homes in pitcher-friendly parks.
Mike Pelfrey (age 26)
Pelfrey is off to a hot start, due to an increased strikeout rate and suddenly stingy hit rate. This could be a breakout season, but Pelfrey is still walking too many, and doesn't project to have the K/inning upside needed to be a top fantasy pitcher. Verdict: sell high
Barry Zito (age 31)
Zito definitely changed something over the offseason. His stuff looks good, he's throwing more strikes, and he's enjoying a microscopic WHIP and ERA over his first 4 starts. The underlying numbers say he's been very lucky so far, but Zito should finally be able to notch an ERA under 4 for the first time as a Giant. Verdict: sell high
Brad Penny (age 31)
Once again Dave Duncan has worked his magic with a retread pitcher. Penny has only walked 3 in 28.2 innings, by far the lowest walk rate of his career. Unfortunately, Penny's strikeout rate hasn't been useful since 2006. He did pitch 173 combined innings last year, but even if he can stay healthy all season, his lack of strikeouts means he's expendable. Verdict: sell high
Kevin Correia (age 29)
Correia was solid over 198 innings last year and is off to a great start in 2010. His strikeout rate is up in 2010, but he may actually sustain some of that increase. Probably still not a K/inning guy, but should be able to top 150, with an ERA a shade under 4 and WHIP around 1.35. His numbers at PETCO are stellar. Verdict: believe
Doug Fister (age 26)
Fister has been lucky so far, but is strictly streaming or AL-only material due to hittable stuff and lack of K's. He's probably OK to start at Safeco, but that only makes him half a pitcher. Verdict: sell high
It's probably not a coincidence that 4 out of these 5 pitchers are in the NL, or that 4 out of 5 make their homes in pitcher-friendly parks.
Mike Pelfrey (age 26)
Pelfrey is off to a hot start, due to an increased strikeout rate and suddenly stingy hit rate. This could be a breakout season, but Pelfrey is still walking too many, and doesn't project to have the K/inning upside needed to be a top fantasy pitcher. Verdict: sell high
Barry Zito (age 31)
Zito definitely changed something over the offseason. His stuff looks good, he's throwing more strikes, and he's enjoying a microscopic WHIP and ERA over his first 4 starts. The underlying numbers say he's been very lucky so far, but Zito should finally be able to notch an ERA under 4 for the first time as a Giant. Verdict: sell high
Brad Penny (age 31)
Once again Dave Duncan has worked his magic with a retread pitcher. Penny has only walked 3 in 28.2 innings, by far the lowest walk rate of his career. Unfortunately, Penny's strikeout rate hasn't been useful since 2006. He did pitch 173 combined innings last year, but even if he can stay healthy all season, his lack of strikeouts means he's expendable. Verdict: sell high
Kevin Correia (age 29)
Correia was solid over 198 innings last year and is off to a great start in 2010. His strikeout rate is up in 2010, but he may actually sustain some of that increase. Probably still not a K/inning guy, but should be able to top 150, with an ERA a shade under 4 and WHIP around 1.35. His numbers at PETCO are stellar. Verdict: believe
Doug Fister (age 26)
Fister has been lucky so far, but is strictly streaming or AL-only material due to hittable stuff and lack of K's. He's probably OK to start at Safeco, but that only makes him half a pitcher. Verdict: sell high
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Early fantasy surprises
Vernon Wells (.324, 7 HR, 13 RBI)
He looks healthy, and has been mashing everything in sight. Is he back to being the .303/32/106 guy of 2006? His batting average has fluctuated wildly in his career but we can safely bank on his career average of .281, with 25+ HR and close to 100 RBI. Verdict: believe.
Jose Guillen (.352, 6 HR, 15 RBI)
The early favorite for comeback player of the year, since he narrowly avoided death during the offseason due to blood clots. He played full seasons in 2007 and 2008, and averaged around .280/21/95 RBI. There's no reason to think he can't equal or surpass those numbers this year, but a .300/30/100 season is highly unlikely. Verdict: Sell high.
Chase Headley (.379, 14 R, 5 SB)
Up and coming young player, whose minor league numbers (.301/.399/.500) suggest a solid major league hitter. He has already stolen more bases this season than in any of his minor league seasons. Expect fewer steals and more home runs, although 20 HR might be his ceiling this year. He's only going to get better. Verdict: believe.
Kelly Johnson (.327, 6 HR, 13 R)
Unceremoniously dropped by the Braves, KJ has found a new home atop the Dbacks order and has been cranking home runs at a prodigious rate. He is 28, so this could be a step forward, but let's remember that his career high in the majors is 16 HR and a .287 average. As a 2B, those are nice numbers, but someone in your league might believe he can hit .300 with 25 HR and 100 runs scored. Verdict: Sell high.
Scott Podsednik (.397, 7 SB)
The Scott Pod did hit .304 in 132 games in 2009, but he's 34 years old and a career .279 hitter. He hasn't played more than 139 games in a season since 2004. Pencil him in for 30 steals, but expecting him to be anything more than a steals specialist on your team is asking for trouble. Verdict: Sell high.
Vernon Wells (.324, 7 HR, 13 RBI)
He looks healthy, and has been mashing everything in sight. Is he back to being the .303/32/106 guy of 2006? His batting average has fluctuated wildly in his career but we can safely bank on his career average of .281, with 25+ HR and close to 100 RBI. Verdict: believe.
Jose Guillen (.352, 6 HR, 15 RBI)
The early favorite for comeback player of the year, since he narrowly avoided death during the offseason due to blood clots. He played full seasons in 2007 and 2008, and averaged around .280/21/95 RBI. There's no reason to think he can't equal or surpass those numbers this year, but a .300/30/100 season is highly unlikely. Verdict: Sell high.
Chase Headley (.379, 14 R, 5 SB)
Up and coming young player, whose minor league numbers (.301/.399/.500) suggest a solid major league hitter. He has already stolen more bases this season than in any of his minor league seasons. Expect fewer steals and more home runs, although 20 HR might be his ceiling this year. He's only going to get better. Verdict: believe.
Kelly Johnson (.327, 6 HR, 13 R)
Unceremoniously dropped by the Braves, KJ has found a new home atop the Dbacks order and has been cranking home runs at a prodigious rate. He is 28, so this could be a step forward, but let's remember that his career high in the majors is 16 HR and a .287 average. As a 2B, those are nice numbers, but someone in your league might believe he can hit .300 with 25 HR and 100 runs scored. Verdict: Sell high.
Scott Podsednik (.397, 7 SB)
The Scott Pod did hit .304 in 132 games in 2009, but he's 34 years old and a career .279 hitter. He hasn't played more than 139 games in a season since 2004. Pencil him in for 30 steals, but expecting him to be anything more than a steals specialist on your team is asking for trouble. Verdict: Sell high.
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