Saturday, March 23, 2013

2013 Starting Pitcher Sleeperz™

Analysis based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Yu Darvish, ADP 50
Priced at the bottom of the top tier of pitchers, but could easily finish in the middle or top of it.

Adam Wainwright, ADP 53
Another discount Ace, going 13th among starters but a solid fantasy No. 1.

Mat Latos, ADP 75
Going as a No. 2 starter but he's basically a No. 1.

Max Scherzer, ADP 88
Yovani Gallardo, ADP 89
Studs but still underrated for some reason.

Brandon Morrow, ADP 111
If he had stayed healthy all year he would be going about 30 picks earlier than this.

Jon Lester, ADP 134
Last year's disaster is this year's discount.

Jeff Samardzija, ADP 151
Up and coming strikeout artist.

Mike Minor, ADP 181
Last year's early season struggles keeping his price low.  He is poised for a breakout.

Josh Beckett, ADP 220
Definitely on the downside of his career but at this price, should still be very helpful in fantasy in 2013.

Alex Cobb, ADP 223
Young and getting better.  Worth a shot here.

Marco Estrada, ADP 225
Great value late.

Brandon McCarthy, ADP 225
Unexciting but very solid here.

Brandon Beachy, ADP 227
Matt Garza, ADP 227
Will start the year on DL but if you can stash them in a shallow league, worth a try.

Julio Teheran, ADP 227
This might be a year early, but he has tremendous upside and appears to have a rotation spot for now.

Shelby Miller, ADP 230
This might be a year early, but he has tremendous upside if he gets a rotation spot.

Hisashi Iwakuma, ADP 231
Shhh, steal this guy in your draft like a ninja.

Wandy Rodriguez, ADP 237
He's down here because your leaguemates are bored with him.

AJ Griffin, ADP 260
Won't set the world on fire but a great value here with some upside.

Erasmo Ramirez, ADP 260
Upside worth a shot here.

Mike Fiers, ADP 260
Maybe not massive upside but should be fine, worth a shot here.

Jason Hammel, ADP 260
Was doing very well before his knee injury, could be solid and he's almost free at this point.

Corey Luebke, ADP 260
Was breaking out before his injury, if you can stash until mid season, might help you.

May be in minors but keep on your radar:
Gerrit Cole
Trevor Bauer
Drew Smyly
Tyler Skaggs
Jacob Turner
Zack Wheeler

Deeper leagues (12 tm+), some upside:
Felix Doubront
Jake Arrieta
Dillon Gee
Patrick Corbin
Vance Worley

Deeper leagues (12 tm+), good filler:
Joe Blanton
Gavin Floyd
Bud Norris
Clayton Richard (esp. at home)
Jose Quintana

Deeper leagues, watch list:
Francisco Liriano
Scott Baker
Wily Peralta

Thursday, March 21, 2013

2013 Outfield Sleeperz™

Analysis based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Desmond Jennings, ADP 79
At least the poor man's B.J. Upton, going 25 picks later due to a few less homers.  However, Dez Jen should score more runs than BJ and have a slightly higher average.  Throw in the chance of a breakout and this is a nice value.

Michael Morse, ADP 152
Just has to stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern.  Lineup should be decent, LF fences brought in a tad so Safeco shouldn't hurt him much. Not a huge fan of the OF's going just ahead of him (Revere, Ethier, Crawford, Torii Hunter) which makes him look better.

Corey Hart, ADP 196
Will miss a little time but then should be back to his old reliable ways, and playing 1B so he won't have to run around the outfield much on his knee.

Norichika Aoki, ADP 212
Adam Eaton, ADP 218
Speedy leadoff guys with a little pop and good average.

Michael Cuddyer, ADP 221
Contributes in every category, nice lineup, good park.  Discounted due to last year's injury.  He's boring so see if your leaguemates let him slip.

Cameron Maybin, ADP 222
Yes, I was wrong on him last year and it was bad.  But the underlying stats really didn't change much, and this year he's going 75 picks later.  He's only 26 and I'm willing to go back to the well for a guy who can hit double digit homers and steal 40 bases.

Emilio Bonifacio, ADP 224
This is a little high for a guy without a full time job, but if you need speed, you have to pay attention.  There's a chance he ends up 2B eligible, getting playing time and running wild with a really good lineup around him.  Stole 30 bases in just 64 games last year.

Domonic Brown, ADP 224
Post post-hype sleeper, take a chance on a kid who could someday soon be a 20/20, .275 guy.

Dayan Viciedo, ADP 225
Great value here for a 24 year old who hit 25 homers last year and should improve on his .255 average.  Not sure why The Tank is getting no love.

Starling Marte, ADP 227
Might need another year of seasoning but the sky's the limit with this kid.  Speed, average, power - I'm getting on board now.

Denard Span, ADP 228
Will probably miss a few games but leading off for a good lineup, gives you good batting average and 20 steal ability.

Wil Myers, ADP 228
Future stud who should be able to produce homers as soon as he comes up, hopefully in May.

Lorenzo Cain, ADP 233
Injuries have held him back but he has that power/speed/average combo that you have to chase.

Peter Bourjos, ADP 260
If you like yourself a 10 home run / 20 steal guy who should hit better than the .220 he put up last year, Bourjos is your guy.  Glove keeps him in the lineup, playing time is his with Torii Hunter gone.

Lucas Duda, ADP 260
I liked him last year and he fell on his face, but now you get him at a discount.  Profiles as a power hitter with decent batting average.

Leonys Martin, ADP 260
Young contact hitter with some power and speed, needs the starting gig but much more exciting than his competition Craig Gentry.

Carlos Quentin, ADP 260
He's being completely overlooked because he's injury prone but he's a good hitter with huge power, and they even brought in the fences a bit.

Chris Young, ADP 260
His batting average should be terrible but 20/20 plays in anything deeper than a 10 team roto league.

Travis Snider/Jose Tabata, ADP 260
I wish I could quit them, but they both still have so much potential.  If one of them gets a path to at bats, pick them up.

Oscar Taveras, ADP 260
Future stud, but probably needs an injury to really help a shallower mixed league team this year.

Deep League (more than 12 team roto) Specials in no particular order:

Logan Morrison (1B)
David Dejesus
Andy Dirks
Kelly Johnson (2B)
JD Martinez
Justin Maxwell
Jason Bay
Chris Parmelee (1B)
Gerardo Parra
Jordany Valdespin (2B perhaps)
Will Venable
Jonny Gomes
Tyler Colvin
Eric Young Jr.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

2013 Third Base Sleeperz™

Analysis based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Aramis Ramirez, ADP 73
Are his stats going to be that different from Ryan Zimmerman, who's going at pick #50?  People might be down on Aramis because he's 35, but he's been extremely durable and consistent the past two years.

Todd Frazier, ADP 188
Don't believe the hype that he is a star in the making, but still some good value at this spot in the draft.  I expect Frazier's average to go down, but his other numbers should be just as good or better than last year. Have to like his park and lineup. Certainly he can equal or better Mike Moustakas, who is going at pick 156.

Kyle Seager, ADP 189
Gives you a little bit of everything and has some upside. Will have a better lineup around him this year.  I doubt he can hit more homers than last year, but at this pick he doesn't really have to.

Will Middlebrooks, ADP 196
Don't expect that .288 average from last year, but he's probably just as good as Moustakas or Frazier, at a cheaper price.

Josh Donaldson, ADP 260
Cheap power for your deeper league CI spot.

2013 Shortstop Sleeperz™

Analysis based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Andrelton Simmons, ADP 199
First, the bad news: he's very raw, doesn't walk much, and only stole one base in 49 big league games last year.  The good news is, he doesn't strike out much, has the ability to steal 20 bases, his stellar glove will keep him in the lineup, and he appears to be the leadoff hitter for a great looking Braves lineup.  If he stays there, he'll be a value at this pick.  If he stumbles and ends up batting 8th, this will be a wasted pick.  This is a speculative pick so if you can't take the risk, just go with the reliable Alexei Ramirez, who is going around the same point in the draft.

Josh Rutledge, ADP 215
Good shot at 15/15 and should be able to maintain a .260 or better average.  Low walk rate and inexperience are a concern.  Good home park, hopefully bats second in a good lineup, should be eligible at 2B and SS.

Jhonny Peralta, ADP 222
Unsexy vet that nobody ever wants, and last year's .239 average may have finally scared off your leaguemates for good.  This year he should bounce back to the .255-.260 range with 14 HR and some decent RBI & run opportunities.  If you're desperate, plug him into your deeper league MI spot.

Everth Cabrera, ADP 227
Sure he's a one tool player, but 30-40 steals at MI can help you in deeper roto, if you need it.  Just don't convince yourself he can hit.

Jean Segura, ADP 260
A nice speculative deeper league MI option.  He's the starting shortstop, and has the skills to eventually steal 30+ bases and hit for a high average.  This year might be rough, he won't rack up the counting stats from the bottom of an NL order. If he ends up batting 8th in front of the pitcher, it's usually fantasy death.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

2013 Second Base Sleeperz™

Analysis based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Neil Walker, ADP 133
Howie Kendrick, ADP 141
Sure they're boring, but that's why they're underrated.  They won't hurt you in any category.

Dan Uggla, ADP 150
Rickie Weeks, ADP 154
Low batting average guys, but expect their averages to be better than last year.  What they give up in average they make up for in the other categories.  Uggla for pure power, Weeks more well-rounded.

Josh Rutledge (SS), ADP 215
Good shot at 15/15 with an average that won't hurt you.  If he took a few walks I'd really love him.  Ideally he's in your MI spot but you could probably get away with starting him in 12 team mixed.  He'll be eligible at 2B and SS, a nice bonus.

Dustin Ackley, ADP 222
Roll the dice on this former second overall pick, who couldn't live up to the hype last year (I warned you).  However, he still managed to go 12/13 and score a bunch of runs.  His average could easily get up to .250 or better this year, and that's all he has to do at this price.

Jedd Gyorko, ADP 224
Rookie has the starting job in San Diego and he can hit. With Headley out he may play 3B for a month or two, check your league for his position eligibility.

Jemile Weeks, ADP 260
If he gets the starting job, a good source of cheap speed - with upside if he can ever hit for average again.

Matt Carpenter (3B), ADP 260
Should beat out that scrub Descalso.  Don't expect too much, but should hit for a decent average with some power.  Check your league, could have eligibility at 1B, 3B, and OF as well.

Monday, March 18, 2013

2013 First Base Sleeperz™

My analysis is primarily based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Eric Hosmer, ADP 115
Anthony Rizzo, ADP 115
Paul Konerko, ADP 116
Take your pick of these three undervalued first basemen going 13-14-15th at the position.  Hosmer for a dash of speed, Rizzo for power, Konerko if you want to play it safe.

Kendrys Morales, ADP 194
Last year was his recovery year, and in the second half he hit 14 HR.  Will get more ABs in Seattle and the park shouldn't hurt that much.

Brandon Belt, ADP 236
Good for .275-15-10 and should take a step forward this year.

Yonder Alonso, ADP 260
Needs a little more power to be an impact bat but they brought in the fences a few feet right?

Justin Smoak, ADP 260
Roll the dice on some upside.  Finally hit well at the end of last year, fences in, better lineup?  Are you buying any of this?

Chris Carter, (Astros) ADP 260
Cheap power and that's about it.

Matt Adams, ADP 260
If he gets to play, he could do some damage.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

2013 Catcher Sleeperz™

Every year I bring you the best Sleeperz™ in baseball, at the last possible moment before your draft, and huzzah! This year is no different. All this week I will be posting my 2013 Sleeperz™.  Let there be rejoicing throughout the land.

Last year, over 50% of my Sleeperz™ significantly outperformed their ADP (not counting historically healthy players that suffered random injuries). Seems good to me, but since other "experts" never seem to revisit their picks, I don't really know. Last year I brought you gigantic hits like Jason Kipnis, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, R.A. Dickey, and A.J. Burnett. I also had pathetic misses like Jemile Weeks, Jose Tabata, and Jhoulys Chacin. All in all, I'm calling it a win, and so I've decided to keep pestering you with my opinions.

If you want to win at fantasy baseball, the best thing you can do to increase your chances is to squeeze every bit of value out of your draft or auction. That means understanding the tiers at each position - never pay more when you can get similar stats for less. It's pretty simple: target players who you have reason to believe will outperform their price - or as I call them, Sleeperz™.

My analysis is primarily based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Carlos Santana, ADP 79
The best value of the second tier of catchers. Expect him to improve on last year, and he's going 20 picks after Weiters.  I'm a sucker for guys with plate discipline.

Miguel Montero, ADP 176
I love Victor Martinez, but given the fact that he's 35 and did not play baseball last year, why not wait 90 picks and get the very reliable Miguel Montero.

Salvador Perez, ADP 182
High batting average, growing power, what's not to like. Lots of upside with very little risk.

Jesus Montero, ADP 213
All signs point to improvement. Great value here - if Miguel Montero and Salvador Perez go at ADP, be happy with Jesus 30 picks later.

Jonathan Lucroy, ADP 225
Probably the best value at the catcher position, all things considered.

Alex Avila, ADP 260
Use him as the last acceptable deeper league #1 catcher if you want to wait.

No. 2 Catcher Sleeperz:
Welington Castillo, 260
Rob Brantly, 260
Jason Castro, 260

Future looks bright, but probably not this year:
Travis D'Arnaud, 260
Devin Mesoraco, 260
Yasmani Grandal, 260
Martin Maldonado, 260
Hector Sanchez, 260