Wednesday, March 20, 2013

2013 Shortstop Sleeperz™

Analysis based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Andrelton Simmons, ADP 199
First, the bad news: he's very raw, doesn't walk much, and only stole one base in 49 big league games last year.  The good news is, he doesn't strike out much, has the ability to steal 20 bases, his stellar glove will keep him in the lineup, and he appears to be the leadoff hitter for a great looking Braves lineup.  If he stays there, he'll be a value at this pick.  If he stumbles and ends up batting 8th, this will be a wasted pick.  This is a speculative pick so if you can't take the risk, just go with the reliable Alexei Ramirez, who is going around the same point in the draft.

Josh Rutledge, ADP 215
Good shot at 15/15 and should be able to maintain a .260 or better average.  Low walk rate and inexperience are a concern.  Good home park, hopefully bats second in a good lineup, should be eligible at 2B and SS.

Jhonny Peralta, ADP 222
Unsexy vet that nobody ever wants, and last year's .239 average may have finally scared off your leaguemates for good.  This year he should bounce back to the .255-.260 range with 14 HR and some decent RBI & run opportunities.  If you're desperate, plug him into your deeper league MI spot.

Everth Cabrera, ADP 227
Sure he's a one tool player, but 30-40 steals at MI can help you in deeper roto, if you need it.  Just don't convince yourself he can hit.

Jean Segura, ADP 260
A nice speculative deeper league MI option.  He's the starting shortstop, and has the skills to eventually steal 30+ bases and hit for a high average.  This year might be rough, he won't rack up the counting stats from the bottom of an NL order. If he ends up batting 8th in front of the pitcher, it's usually fantasy death.

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