Thursday, March 21, 2013

2013 Outfield Sleeperz™

Analysis based on 5x5 mixed roto non-keeper, all ADP values are from ESPN.

Desmond Jennings, ADP 79
At least the poor man's B.J. Upton, going 25 picks later due to a few less homers.  However, Dez Jen should score more runs than BJ and have a slightly higher average.  Throw in the chance of a breakout and this is a nice value.

Michael Morse, ADP 152
Just has to stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern.  Lineup should be decent, LF fences brought in a tad so Safeco shouldn't hurt him much. Not a huge fan of the OF's going just ahead of him (Revere, Ethier, Crawford, Torii Hunter) which makes him look better.

Corey Hart, ADP 196
Will miss a little time but then should be back to his old reliable ways, and playing 1B so he won't have to run around the outfield much on his knee.

Norichika Aoki, ADP 212
Adam Eaton, ADP 218
Speedy leadoff guys with a little pop and good average.

Michael Cuddyer, ADP 221
Contributes in every category, nice lineup, good park.  Discounted due to last year's injury.  He's boring so see if your leaguemates let him slip.

Cameron Maybin, ADP 222
Yes, I was wrong on him last year and it was bad.  But the underlying stats really didn't change much, and this year he's going 75 picks later.  He's only 26 and I'm willing to go back to the well for a guy who can hit double digit homers and steal 40 bases.

Emilio Bonifacio, ADP 224
This is a little high for a guy without a full time job, but if you need speed, you have to pay attention.  There's a chance he ends up 2B eligible, getting playing time and running wild with a really good lineup around him.  Stole 30 bases in just 64 games last year.

Domonic Brown, ADP 224
Post post-hype sleeper, take a chance on a kid who could someday soon be a 20/20, .275 guy.

Dayan Viciedo, ADP 225
Great value here for a 24 year old who hit 25 homers last year and should improve on his .255 average.  Not sure why The Tank is getting no love.

Starling Marte, ADP 227
Might need another year of seasoning but the sky's the limit with this kid.  Speed, average, power - I'm getting on board now.

Denard Span, ADP 228
Will probably miss a few games but leading off for a good lineup, gives you good batting average and 20 steal ability.

Wil Myers, ADP 228
Future stud who should be able to produce homers as soon as he comes up, hopefully in May.

Lorenzo Cain, ADP 233
Injuries have held him back but he has that power/speed/average combo that you have to chase.

Peter Bourjos, ADP 260
If you like yourself a 10 home run / 20 steal guy who should hit better than the .220 he put up last year, Bourjos is your guy.  Glove keeps him in the lineup, playing time is his with Torii Hunter gone.

Lucas Duda, ADP 260
I liked him last year and he fell on his face, but now you get him at a discount.  Profiles as a power hitter with decent batting average.

Leonys Martin, ADP 260
Young contact hitter with some power and speed, needs the starting gig but much more exciting than his competition Craig Gentry.

Carlos Quentin, ADP 260
He's being completely overlooked because he's injury prone but he's a good hitter with huge power, and they even brought in the fences a bit.

Chris Young, ADP 260
His batting average should be terrible but 20/20 plays in anything deeper than a 10 team roto league.

Travis Snider/Jose Tabata, ADP 260
I wish I could quit them, but they both still have so much potential.  If one of them gets a path to at bats, pick them up.

Oscar Taveras, ADP 260
Future stud, but probably needs an injury to really help a shallower mixed league team this year.

Deep League (more than 12 team roto) Specials in no particular order:

Logan Morrison (1B)
David Dejesus
Andy Dirks
Kelly Johnson (2B)
JD Martinez
Justin Maxwell
Jason Bay
Chris Parmelee (1B)
Gerardo Parra
Jordany Valdespin (2B perhaps)
Will Venable
Jonny Gomes
Tyler Colvin
Eric Young Jr.

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