All ADP values from ESPN. Analysis based on 5x5 roto, mixed, non-keeper 10 or 12-team leagues. In these league formats I almost never pay for the elite aces. Too much variability, no reason that the second tier of guys can't reach the top level. Last year Verlander was drafted 8th among starters. You can afford to take chances, especially in the back end of your rotation, there will be plenty of replacements and matchup plays available during the season. Focus on low WHIP, high K pitchers who will throw innings, don't try and chase wins.
Zack Greinke (ADP 46)
Voted most likely to be this year's Justin Verlander.
Yovani Gallardo (ADP 63)
C.J. Wilson (ADP 66)
Move to Anaheim will cement his status as a fantasy Ace.
Madison Bumgarner (ADP 83)
Ready to take the next step.
Matt Garza (ADP 113)
Cut down on the fly balls in 2011, a huge help at Wrigley.
Jordan Zimmermann (ADP 122)
Brandon Beachy (ADP 135)
10+ K/9? Yes, please.
Max Scherzer (ADP 143)
Unlucky last year, ERA should be under 4 with plenty of K's, still has upside.
Cory Luebke (ADP 148)
Looks like an ace waiting to happen.
Brandon Morrow (ADP 174)
A 200 K guy with a 1.30 WHIP who might take the next step.
Ted Lilly (ADP 188)
Good old boring underrated Ted Lilly.
Chris Sale (ADP 198)
Great stuff, only 22 years old and becoming a starter. They couldn't possibly let him throw more than 150 innings.
Mike Minor (ADP 212)
Probably won't make it even to 180 IP but should have a lot of success when he does pitch.
Gavin Floyd (ADP 215)
Good old boring underrated Gavin Floyd.
Vance Worley (ADP 218)
Just looks promising all around.
Bud Norris (ADP 219)
Good high K back end starter with upside. Walks/WHIP may be a problem - think Jonathan Sanchez circa 2010, but with an ERA over 3.
Ryan Dempster (ADP 219)
Good old boring underrated Ryan Dempster. Rotation filler, 200 IP, 180 K, 1.35 WHIP, 4 ERA.
Jake Peavy (ADP 224)
Health is the problem but could be worth a flier. This ADP is a little high, but if he slips go for it.
John Danks (ADP 227)
Solid mid-rotation fantasy starter. Good K's, decent control. Take him over Peavy.
Jonathon Niese (ADP 230)
Good K rate and improving control points to good things ahead. Reaching his prime.
Jhoulys Chacin (ADP 234)
Just a little more control and he's golden. Back end fantasy starter with upside.
Erik Bedard (ADP 260)
Hey, when he pitches, he helps your fantasy team.
Edinson Volquez (ADP 260)
I'm saying there's a chance. Big ballpark helps...just a little better control and we could have something.
R.A. Dickey (ADP 260)
Back end filler, low K rate but doesn't walk guys. No Ulnar Collateral Ligament to tear
Homer Bailey (ADP 260)
Steadily improving pitcher, post post hype sleeper, chance to break out.
Mike Leake (ADP 260)
K rate is just OK but he's a pretty good pitcher and improving.
A.J. Burnett (ADP 260)
Sneaky back end fantasy starter, nobody likes AJ, but move to NL and away from Yankees helps. A couple less walks and he's fantasy gold.
Brian Matusz (ADP 260)
Are you feeling lucky? Don't look at last year's disastrous stats, great post hype sleeper potential if you can take a total flier on someone. If only he wasn't in AL East. If not this year, maybe next but I have high hopes for him.