Friday, March 23, 2012

2012 Outfield Sleeperz™

Sleeperz™ are players that should outperform their average draft position / price. Analysis based on 5x5 roto, mixed, non-keeper 10 or 12-team leagues. All ADP values from ESPN.

Adam Jones (ADP 86)
Most people assume he has reached his ceiling, but there is still a chance at upside here without much risk. AJ can help you in every category, he's in his prime, playing for a contract, probably batting cleanup, in a hitter's park and a somewhat decent lineup. At this price I like him better than Alex Gordon (ADP 61).

Cameron Maybin (ADP 149)
Maybin is a 5 tool talent, 25 years old with 300 major league games already under his belt. As good a candidate as any to take a step forward in 2012. Should be able to improve on his .264, 9 HR / 40 SB performance from last year. Park and lineup are negatives but if all else fails, at least he will get you 35 steals. I like Maybin over Drew Stubbs (ADP 123).

Jason Kubel (ADP 193)
If he can hit 20 home runs at Target Field, think of what he can do in the high desert. Unfortunately with his move to the NL he has to play defense, which could result in more injuries or getting benched now and then for a good glove. Worth a shot at this price in case he can bust out a .275 20 HR / 80 RBI kind of season. He's hit a lucky .300 in the past as well.

Delmon Young (ADP 200)
People expect too much of Delmon because of the hype early in his career. He's just 25 years old and in a great position to thrive in 2012. Two years ago he hit .296 with 21 HR and 112 RBI playing at pitcher friendly Target Field. That average was not BABIP inflated, Delmon is a legitimate high average hitter. Now he's in his prime, in a better park, hitting behind two All-Stars and a .285 20 HR / 85 RBI season is very realistic. Even if he only hits 15 homers, at this price that is a tidy profit.

Colby Rasmus (ADP 200)
Average will not be great but Rasmus has real power and some speed. Good hitters park and good lineup. 25 years old with room to grow.

Matt Joyce (ADP 211)
Not flashy but a reliable .265 20 HR / 10 SB guy in a good lineup is a value at this price.

Denard Span (ADP 222)
I liked him better a week ago when he was going undrafted in 10 team leagues. He seems over his concussion, and legitimate leadoff guys are hard to find period, never mind this far into the draft. He's not exciting but he'll at least help you in runs, average and steals (don't expect 20 steals however).

J.D. Martinez (ADP 226)
Don't reach for him but he should give you a good avg, with 15 HR power. The runs and RBI will be a question considering the lineup the AAAstros are putting out there.

Jose Tabata (ADP 226)
Textbook post-hype sleeper breakout candidate, a good contact hitter with realistic 30 steal / 10 HR potential, should bat leadoff and score a good number of runs.

Alejandro De Aza (ADP 227)
De Aza is an older, more injury prone version of Tabata, but in a better lineup. Ideally he hits leadoff, stays healthy and puts up a .280, 10 HR / 30 steal season with a lot of runs scored. Or, he could get platooned or injured.

Dyan Viciedo (ADP 260)
Has the LF job to himself, is young with plate discipline issues but a legitimate shot at 20 HR with a .270, and his lineup and park are positives.

Chris Heisey (ADP 260)
More of a deep league special, but if Heisey got to play every day, he would mash 25 homers with an OK batting average and a little speed. Right now battling with a similar player in Ryan Ludwick. Unless you are in a deep (12 tm+, 5 OF) league, he's just a guy to keep an eye on for now.

Overvalued at OF:
Alex Gordon (63), Drew Stubbs (123)

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