Because there are so many starting pitchers, and because pitching performance is so volatile from year to year, there are always plenty of bargains. In mixed leagues, I almost never pay for the top aces, since it's quite possible to build a staff of underrated starters. Focus on low WHIP, high strikeout pitchers and hope that the wins come.
In mixed leagues, here are 33 underrated starters to choose from. Investigate them and decide for yourself. Don't reach, just let them come to you and voila, you'll have your bargain pitching staff. Number in parentheses is the player's ESPN Average Draft Position. I put an asterisk next to my favorite sleeper picks.
Tier 1
Justin Verlander (40)
Ubaldo Jimenez (48)
Cole Hamels (60)
Dan Haren (62)
David Price (69)
Matt Cain (77)
Francisco Liriano* (88) - 28 years old, can still get better
Max Scherzer* (101) - struggled early in 2010, still finished with awesome numbers. About to break out.
Tier 2
Brett Anderson (134)
Colby Lewis (145)
Hiroki Kuroda (148)
Dan Hudson (150)
Tier 3
Brandon Morrow (165)
Josh Beckett (167)
Ricky Nolasco (169)
Jhoulys Chacin* (175) - lots of K's, good command, everything points to more improvement this year
Madison Bumgarner (179)
Tier 4
Ricky Romero (193)
Brian Matusz* (198) - has the pedigree, and showed improvement throughout his rookie year in the AL East
Jake Peavy (207)
James Shields (209)
Gio Gonzalez (211)
Tier 5
Ian Kennedy (213)
Jordan Zimmermann (220)
Javy Vazquez* (224) - back in the NL East, where he racked up 238 K with a 1.08 WHIP in 2009
Gavin Floyd (233)
Tier 6 (after pick 260):
James McDonald
Scott Baker
Erik Bedard
Mike Minor* - youngster has the pedigree, lots of K's, very few walks, great situation
Derek Holland
Homer Bailey
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Monday, March 14, 2011
Outfield Sleeperz for 2011
Here are some outfielders that should outperform their price, based on ESPN average draft position (ADP). Based on a 5 x 5 redraft league.
Player (ESPN ADP):
Nick Markakis (137) - better lineup this year. Unsexy but valuable, and if he adds a few HR you're golden.
Rajai Davis (143) - comparable stats to Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, or Brett Gardner, but 30 picks later.
Travis Snider (180) - 30 HR, 10 SB upside
Jason Kubel (208) - expect slight BA rebound. Can bench vs lefties
Jose Tabata (217) - a little young but upside
Dexter Fowler (226) - a little young but upside
Julio Borbon (227) - slated to start in CF, speed to burn
Coco Crisp (230)
Seth Smith (237) - Hawpe is gone. More PT. Can bench vs lefties
Will Venable (260) - power/speed upside for deep leagues
Peter Bourjos (260) - should get you 10 HR, 20 SB. Glove will keep him in the lineup
Michael Brantley (260)
Alex Gordon (260) - someday he'll be productive. Too bad it won't be at 3B
Player (ESPN ADP):
Nick Markakis (137) - better lineup this year. Unsexy but valuable, and if he adds a few HR you're golden.
Rajai Davis (143) - comparable stats to Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, or Brett Gardner, but 30 picks later.
Travis Snider (180) - 30 HR, 10 SB upside
Jason Kubel (208) - expect slight BA rebound. Can bench vs lefties
Jose Tabata (217) - a little young but upside
Dexter Fowler (226) - a little young but upside
Julio Borbon (227) - slated to start in CF, speed to burn
Coco Crisp (230)
Seth Smith (237) - Hawpe is gone. More PT. Can bench vs lefties
Will Venable (260) - power/speed upside for deep leagues
Peter Bourjos (260) - should get you 10 HR, 20 SB. Glove will keep him in the lineup
Michael Brantley (260)
Alex Gordon (260) - someday he'll be productive. Too bad it won't be at 3B
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Infield Sleeperz for 2011
Without further ado, let's get down to business. These are my picks for the top sleeperz of 2011. Sleeperz are players who outperform their price. In other words, they are significantly underrated by average draft position (ADP). I prefer auctions, but dollar values are very hard to compare from league to league due to keeper inflation and different scoring systems. For the purposes of my analysis I am assuming 5 x 5 rotisserie, 10 or 12 team mixed non-keeper leagues.
First base (ESPN ADP):
Prince Fielder (25)
Kendry Morales (75)
Ike Davis (211)
Justin Smoak (231)
Matt LaPorta (260)
Second base:
Brandon Phillips (60)
Ben Zobrist (96)
Aaron Hill (113)
Gordon Beckham (128)
Chone Figgins (130)
Shortstop:
These guys are all pretty close, just ranked in order of ADP. In other words, I'd much rather have Lowrie at 260 than Hardy at 208.
J.J. Hardy (208)
Ryan Theriot (219)
Asdrubal Cabrera (220)
Yunel Escobar (224)
Jed Lowrie (260)
Third base:
Casey McGeehee (90)
Mark Reynolds (154)
David Freese (226)
Danny Valencia (260)
Moustakas (260) - probably starts in AAA
Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (218)
Chris Iannetta (223)
J.P. Arencibia (231)
John Jaso (260)
Jesus Montero (260) - if he plays
First base (ESPN ADP):
Prince Fielder (25)
Kendry Morales (75)
Ike Davis (211)
Justin Smoak (231)
Matt LaPorta (260)
Second base:
Brandon Phillips (60)
Ben Zobrist (96)
Aaron Hill (113)
Gordon Beckham (128)
Chone Figgins (130)
Shortstop:
These guys are all pretty close, just ranked in order of ADP. In other words, I'd much rather have Lowrie at 260 than Hardy at 208.
J.J. Hardy (208)
Ryan Theriot (219)
Asdrubal Cabrera (220)
Yunel Escobar (224)
Jed Lowrie (260)
Third base:
Casey McGeehee (90)
Mark Reynolds (154)
David Freese (226)
Danny Valencia (260)
Moustakas (260) - probably starts in AAA
Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (218)
Chris Iannetta (223)
J.P. Arencibia (231)
John Jaso (260)
Jesus Montero (260) - if he plays
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Early fantasy surprises, Part 2. Pitchers
It's probably not a coincidence that 4 out of these 5 pitchers are in the NL, or that 4 out of 5 make their homes in pitcher-friendly parks.
Mike Pelfrey (age 26)
Pelfrey is off to a hot start, due to an increased strikeout rate and suddenly stingy hit rate. This could be a breakout season, but Pelfrey is still walking too many, and doesn't project to have the K/inning upside needed to be a top fantasy pitcher. Verdict: sell high
Barry Zito (age 31)
Zito definitely changed something over the offseason. His stuff looks good, he's throwing more strikes, and he's enjoying a microscopic WHIP and ERA over his first 4 starts. The underlying numbers say he's been very lucky so far, but Zito should finally be able to notch an ERA under 4 for the first time as a Giant. Verdict: sell high
Brad Penny (age 31)
Once again Dave Duncan has worked his magic with a retread pitcher. Penny has only walked 3 in 28.2 innings, by far the lowest walk rate of his career. Unfortunately, Penny's strikeout rate hasn't been useful since 2006. He did pitch 173 combined innings last year, but even if he can stay healthy all season, his lack of strikeouts means he's expendable. Verdict: sell high
Kevin Correia (age 29)
Correia was solid over 198 innings last year and is off to a great start in 2010. His strikeout rate is up in 2010, but he may actually sustain some of that increase. Probably still not a K/inning guy, but should be able to top 150, with an ERA a shade under 4 and WHIP around 1.35. His numbers at PETCO are stellar. Verdict: believe
Doug Fister (age 26)
Fister has been lucky so far, but is strictly streaming or AL-only material due to hittable stuff and lack of K's. He's probably OK to start at Safeco, but that only makes him half a pitcher. Verdict: sell high
It's probably not a coincidence that 4 out of these 5 pitchers are in the NL, or that 4 out of 5 make their homes in pitcher-friendly parks.
Mike Pelfrey (age 26)
Pelfrey is off to a hot start, due to an increased strikeout rate and suddenly stingy hit rate. This could be a breakout season, but Pelfrey is still walking too many, and doesn't project to have the K/inning upside needed to be a top fantasy pitcher. Verdict: sell high
Barry Zito (age 31)
Zito definitely changed something over the offseason. His stuff looks good, he's throwing more strikes, and he's enjoying a microscopic WHIP and ERA over his first 4 starts. The underlying numbers say he's been very lucky so far, but Zito should finally be able to notch an ERA under 4 for the first time as a Giant. Verdict: sell high
Brad Penny (age 31)
Once again Dave Duncan has worked his magic with a retread pitcher. Penny has only walked 3 in 28.2 innings, by far the lowest walk rate of his career. Unfortunately, Penny's strikeout rate hasn't been useful since 2006. He did pitch 173 combined innings last year, but even if he can stay healthy all season, his lack of strikeouts means he's expendable. Verdict: sell high
Kevin Correia (age 29)
Correia was solid over 198 innings last year and is off to a great start in 2010. His strikeout rate is up in 2010, but he may actually sustain some of that increase. Probably still not a K/inning guy, but should be able to top 150, with an ERA a shade under 4 and WHIP around 1.35. His numbers at PETCO are stellar. Verdict: believe
Doug Fister (age 26)
Fister has been lucky so far, but is strictly streaming or AL-only material due to hittable stuff and lack of K's. He's probably OK to start at Safeco, but that only makes him half a pitcher. Verdict: sell high
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Early fantasy surprises
Vernon Wells (.324, 7 HR, 13 RBI)
He looks healthy, and has been mashing everything in sight. Is he back to being the .303/32/106 guy of 2006? His batting average has fluctuated wildly in his career but we can safely bank on his career average of .281, with 25+ HR and close to 100 RBI. Verdict: believe.
Jose Guillen (.352, 6 HR, 15 RBI)
The early favorite for comeback player of the year, since he narrowly avoided death during the offseason due to blood clots. He played full seasons in 2007 and 2008, and averaged around .280/21/95 RBI. There's no reason to think he can't equal or surpass those numbers this year, but a .300/30/100 season is highly unlikely. Verdict: Sell high.
Chase Headley (.379, 14 R, 5 SB)
Up and coming young player, whose minor league numbers (.301/.399/.500) suggest a solid major league hitter. He has already stolen more bases this season than in any of his minor league seasons. Expect fewer steals and more home runs, although 20 HR might be his ceiling this year. He's only going to get better. Verdict: believe.
Kelly Johnson (.327, 6 HR, 13 R)
Unceremoniously dropped by the Braves, KJ has found a new home atop the Dbacks order and has been cranking home runs at a prodigious rate. He is 28, so this could be a step forward, but let's remember that his career high in the majors is 16 HR and a .287 average. As a 2B, those are nice numbers, but someone in your league might believe he can hit .300 with 25 HR and 100 runs scored. Verdict: Sell high.
Scott Podsednik (.397, 7 SB)
The Scott Pod did hit .304 in 132 games in 2009, but he's 34 years old and a career .279 hitter. He hasn't played more than 139 games in a season since 2004. Pencil him in for 30 steals, but expecting him to be anything more than a steals specialist on your team is asking for trouble. Verdict: Sell high.
Vernon Wells (.324, 7 HR, 13 RBI)
He looks healthy, and has been mashing everything in sight. Is he back to being the .303/32/106 guy of 2006? His batting average has fluctuated wildly in his career but we can safely bank on his career average of .281, with 25+ HR and close to 100 RBI. Verdict: believe.
Jose Guillen (.352, 6 HR, 15 RBI)
The early favorite for comeback player of the year, since he narrowly avoided death during the offseason due to blood clots. He played full seasons in 2007 and 2008, and averaged around .280/21/95 RBI. There's no reason to think he can't equal or surpass those numbers this year, but a .300/30/100 season is highly unlikely. Verdict: Sell high.
Chase Headley (.379, 14 R, 5 SB)
Up and coming young player, whose minor league numbers (.301/.399/.500) suggest a solid major league hitter. He has already stolen more bases this season than in any of his minor league seasons. Expect fewer steals and more home runs, although 20 HR might be his ceiling this year. He's only going to get better. Verdict: believe.
Kelly Johnson (.327, 6 HR, 13 R)
Unceremoniously dropped by the Braves, KJ has found a new home atop the Dbacks order and has been cranking home runs at a prodigious rate. He is 28, so this could be a step forward, but let's remember that his career high in the majors is 16 HR and a .287 average. As a 2B, those are nice numbers, but someone in your league might believe he can hit .300 with 25 HR and 100 runs scored. Verdict: Sell high.
Scott Podsednik (.397, 7 SB)
The Scott Pod did hit .304 in 132 games in 2009, but he's 34 years old and a career .279 hitter. He hasn't played more than 139 games in a season since 2004. Pencil him in for 30 steals, but expecting him to be anything more than a steals specialist on your team is asking for trouble. Verdict: Sell high.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Late round SP's
One of my tweeps, @ChrisLewis25 asked about my favorite late round starting pitchers. I couldn't find a way to cram that into 140 characters, so here we go with a full-blown blog post.
I only looked at pitchers with an average draft position beyond 260 according to ESPN. That ruled out the following pitchers, who I like as sleepers this year (ADP in parentheses):
Joe Blanton (212)
Mat Latos (214)
Brad Penny (218)
Brian Matusz (221)
Johnny Cueto (221)
Hiroki Kuroda (223)
Erik Bedard (227)
Joel Pineiro (229)
Aaron Harang (231)
I broke down the pitchers I like into a few tiers, with every player ranked in order of preference (age in parentheses):
The young bucks
The best late round target is a younger pitcher with upside who is about to break out. You can always pick up a boring veteran replacement off the scrapheap if it doesn't work out.
• Jeff Niemann (27) Good lord. Just do it.
• Homer Bailey (24) Post-hype sleeper finally put together an awesome month in September. Still has big upside (9+ strikeouts per 9 innings in the minors). Ballpark doesn't help.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith (27) Solid young pitcher, good park, good defense, not tons of K's but upside. Watch the road starts.
• Mark Rzepzcynski (25) Strikeout pitcher, should be good for 150 strikeouts, needs to cut down walks. Tough division.
• Shaun Marcum (29) Introducing the Ace of the Blue Jays. He's had plenty of time to recover from Tommy John. Good stats, solid pitcher, tough division.
• Jason Hammel (28) Love everything except the home park - watch out for those home starts. Shown three straight years of improvement however.
• Justin Masterson (24) Actually racks up strikeouts, just needs to cut down on walks and pitch deeper into games.
• Trevor Cahill (22) Very young, good park, upside. Only pitched 200 minor league innings, and racked up 10K/9.
• Derek Holland (24) Lefty with great minor league stats, still needs polish. Bad ballpark. Not guaranteed a starting job as of now.
The Old Boring Vets
If the young bucks are all gone, you can resort to one of these old boring veterans who probably won't destroy your team ERA, but also has absolutely no upside.
• Carl Pavano (34) Maybe. Doesn't walk people. Not bad. Perhaps.
• Kevin Correia (30) Not going to give you a K per inning, but nice pitcher's park, could give you ERA around 4 and WHIP around 1.35.
• Gil Meche (32) Injury last year depressed numbers, but a solid pitcher to fill out your roster. Still an injury risk, not likely to log 200 innings.
• Jason Marquis (32) Boring innings eater should give you around a 4 ERA and 1.40 WHIP
• Aaron Cook (31) No K's but an innings eater around 4 ERA.
Deeper League Upsiders
These guys have upside but you're rolling the dice. Maybe in a very deep or AL/NL-only league.
• Gio Gonzalez (25) Great upside (10K/9IP minors and majors) but too many walks.
• Ian Snell (29) Hasn't been good since 07, but good defense, good park, strikeout potential (177 in 2007).
• Luke Hochevar (27) Highly touted, shows flashes but nothing much to show for it. I need evidence of a turnaround before I add him.
• Chris Volstad (24) Not many K's, even in the minors (6.3K/9). A sinkerballer with control issues, I don't see the huge fantasy upside.
• Brian Duensing (27) Meh, but eh. Maybe.
I only looked at pitchers with an average draft position beyond 260 according to ESPN. That ruled out the following pitchers, who I like as sleepers this year (ADP in parentheses):
Joe Blanton (212)
Mat Latos (214)
Brad Penny (218)
Brian Matusz (221)
Johnny Cueto (221)
Hiroki Kuroda (223)
Erik Bedard (227)
Joel Pineiro (229)
Aaron Harang (231)
I broke down the pitchers I like into a few tiers, with every player ranked in order of preference (age in parentheses):
The young bucks
The best late round target is a younger pitcher with upside who is about to break out. You can always pick up a boring veteran replacement off the scrapheap if it doesn't work out.
• Jeff Niemann (27) Good lord. Just do it.
• Homer Bailey (24) Post-hype sleeper finally put together an awesome month in September. Still has big upside (9+ strikeouts per 9 innings in the minors). Ballpark doesn't help.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith (27) Solid young pitcher, good park, good defense, not tons of K's but upside. Watch the road starts.
• Mark Rzepzcynski (25) Strikeout pitcher, should be good for 150 strikeouts, needs to cut down walks. Tough division.
• Shaun Marcum (29) Introducing the Ace of the Blue Jays. He's had plenty of time to recover from Tommy John. Good stats, solid pitcher, tough division.
• Jason Hammel (28) Love everything except the home park - watch out for those home starts. Shown three straight years of improvement however.
• Justin Masterson (24) Actually racks up strikeouts, just needs to cut down on walks and pitch deeper into games.
• Trevor Cahill (22) Very young, good park, upside. Only pitched 200 minor league innings, and racked up 10K/9.
• Derek Holland (24) Lefty with great minor league stats, still needs polish. Bad ballpark. Not guaranteed a starting job as of now.
The Old Boring Vets
If the young bucks are all gone, you can resort to one of these old boring veterans who probably won't destroy your team ERA, but also has absolutely no upside.
• Carl Pavano (34) Maybe. Doesn't walk people. Not bad. Perhaps.
• Kevin Correia (30) Not going to give you a K per inning, but nice pitcher's park, could give you ERA around 4 and WHIP around 1.35.
• Gil Meche (32) Injury last year depressed numbers, but a solid pitcher to fill out your roster. Still an injury risk, not likely to log 200 innings.
• Jason Marquis (32) Boring innings eater should give you around a 4 ERA and 1.40 WHIP
• Aaron Cook (31) No K's but an innings eater around 4 ERA.
Deeper League Upsiders
These guys have upside but you're rolling the dice. Maybe in a very deep or AL/NL-only league.
• Gio Gonzalez (25) Great upside (10K/9IP minors and majors) but too many walks.
• Ian Snell (29) Hasn't been good since 07, but good defense, good park, strikeout potential (177 in 2007).
• Luke Hochevar (27) Highly touted, shows flashes but nothing much to show for it. I need evidence of a turnaround before I add him.
• Chris Volstad (24) Not many K's, even in the minors (6.3K/9). A sinkerballer with control issues, I don't see the huge fantasy upside.
• Brian Duensing (27) Meh, but eh. Maybe.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
$1-$2 Specials
Recently did a mock auction on ESPN.com (12 team mixed redraft), and the following players went for $1 or $2. Every league is different, so I can't promise that these players will be available in your league for $1-$2. But if they are, these players are great targets.
I list them here by position, in order of descending value. For $1-$2 players in a mixed league, I tend to value upside over experience:
Catchers:
Kurt Suzuki
Mike Napoli
Chris Iannetta
AJ Pierzynski
John Baker
Infield:
Everth Cabrera
Scott Sizemore
Marco Scutaro
J.J. Hardy
Conor Jackson
Jhonny Peralta
Casey Blake
Outfielders:
Cameron Maybin
Colby Rasmus
Marlon Byrd
Josh Willingham
Milton Bradley
Starting pitchers:
Ben Sheets
Aaron Harang
Erik Bedard
Brian Matusz
Joel Pineiro
Johnny Cueto
Scott Feldman
Ted Lilly
Hiroki Kuroda
Derek Holland
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Relievers:
Octavio Dotel
Daniel Bard
I list them here by position, in order of descending value. For $1-$2 players in a mixed league, I tend to value upside over experience:
Catchers:
Kurt Suzuki
Mike Napoli
Chris Iannetta
AJ Pierzynski
John Baker
Infield:
Everth Cabrera
Scott Sizemore
Marco Scutaro
J.J. Hardy
Conor Jackson
Jhonny Peralta
Casey Blake
Outfielders:
Cameron Maybin
Colby Rasmus
Marlon Byrd
Josh Willingham
Milton Bradley
Starting pitchers:
Ben Sheets
Aaron Harang
Erik Bedard
Brian Matusz
Joel Pineiro
Johnny Cueto
Scott Feldman
Ted Lilly
Hiroki Kuroda
Derek Holland
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Relievers:
Octavio Dotel
Daniel Bard
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