All ADP values from ESPN. Analysis based on 5x5 roto, mixed, non-keeper 10 or 12-team leagues.
Erick Aybar (ADP 143)
Finished last year 8th among shortstops, and now being drafted 13th. The Angels lineup has added a guy named Pujols (and hopefully, a guy named Kendry). So if Aybar continues to bat leadoff, there is no reason he can't improve on last season's 71 runs scored. He will help you in steals and runs and won't hurt you in the other categories.
Emilio Bonifacio (ADP 172)
I'm not a big believer in Bonifacio's hitting skills, but his position flexibility and speed plays in roto leagues, and he could be batting second in an improved lineup. If he can keep up his improved walk rate from last year, he'll be a value. Consider him a steals specialist at a very thin position who can fit your team if you have power at other positions. Don't expect the same batting average as last year.
Yunel Escobar (ADP 214)
The love for Marco Scutaro has apparently gone too far, because I'd rather wait 42 picks and get the same stats from Yunel. .280/10/5 is boring but you could do worse in your middle infield spot.
Zack Cozart (ADP 260)
Going undrafted in 10 team mixed leagues, Cozart appears to have the starting gig and seems recovered from his injury. Has the power / speed combo and upside to help in your middle infield spot. Batting average could be a problem but .250 should be his floor.
Overrated at shortstop:
Jimmy Rollins (52), Marco Scutaro (172)
Sunday, March 18, 2012
2012 Third Base Sleeperz™
Third base is brutal this year in terms of uncovering fantasy value. Because the position is so thin, most third basemen have become overpriced or at best, fairly priced. Expect to pay a premium and feel free to reach for the guy you want. Or, you can squeeze just a little but of value out of the Sleeperz™ below.
All ADP values from ESPN. Analysis based on 5x5 roto, mixed, non-keeper 10 or 12-team leagues.
Emilio Bonifacio (ADP 172)
I'm not a big believer in Bonifacio's hitting skills, but his position flexibility and speed plays in roto leagues, and he could be batting second in an improved lineup. If he can keep up his improved walk rate from last year, he'll be a value. Consider him a steals specialist at a very thin position who can fit your team if you have power at other positions. Don't expect the same batting average as last year.
Mike Moustakas (ADP 199)
The most likely third baseman to take the jump to the next level. I'd like him better after pick 200 but the dearth of good third baseman has inflated his price. Classic post-hype sleeper, who I loved last year and was overshadowed by Eric Hosmer. Might need another year of seasoning at the major league level but should be able to at least equal Kevin Youkilis production, about a hundred picks later.
Mat Gamel (ADP 225)
Gamel has been a hot prospect for what seems like forever, but he is finally getting his chance as the starting first baseman (with 3B eligibility in fantasy). His problem has always been his glove at third base, which won't be an issue this year. He's done all he can do with the bat in the minors, he's out of options and the Brewers will be very motivated to stick with him.
Overrated at third base:
David Wright (35), Kevin Youkilis (90), Martin Prado (162), David Freese (185)
All ADP values from ESPN. Analysis based on 5x5 roto, mixed, non-keeper 10 or 12-team leagues.
Emilio Bonifacio (ADP 172)
I'm not a big believer in Bonifacio's hitting skills, but his position flexibility and speed plays in roto leagues, and he could be batting second in an improved lineup. If he can keep up his improved walk rate from last year, he'll be a value. Consider him a steals specialist at a very thin position who can fit your team if you have power at other positions. Don't expect the same batting average as last year.
Mike Moustakas (ADP 199)
The most likely third baseman to take the jump to the next level. I'd like him better after pick 200 but the dearth of good third baseman has inflated his price. Classic post-hype sleeper, who I loved last year and was overshadowed by Eric Hosmer. Might need another year of seasoning at the major league level but should be able to at least equal Kevin Youkilis production, about a hundred picks later.
Mat Gamel (ADP 225)
Gamel has been a hot prospect for what seems like forever, but he is finally getting his chance as the starting first baseman (with 3B eligibility in fantasy). His problem has always been his glove at third base, which won't be an issue this year. He's done all he can do with the bat in the minors, he's out of options and the Brewers will be very motivated to stick with him.
Overrated at third base:
David Wright (35), Kevin Youkilis (90), Martin Prado (162), David Freese (185)
2012 Second Base Sleeperz™
SECOND BASE:
Howie Kendrick (ADP 114)
Getting no love from drafters after finishing last year as the 6th-ranked second baseman. Maybe it's because he doesn't stand out in any one category, but he's in his prime, contributes in every category and the lineup has improved around him. He'll give you similar stats to Brandon Phillips but 60 picks later.
Jason Kipnis (ADP 185)
What's not to love about Kipnis, he might be the steal of the draft at this ADP. Power and speed with a batting average that won't hurt you. He's young, so there's risk, but I expect at least a 15/15 season with a .270 average. His runs & RBI will determine the difference between him and Brandon Phillips or Ben Zobrist.
Jemile Weeks (ADP 194)
Rickie's little brother is a popular sleeper after hitting .300 last year with 22 steals in only 90 games. He finished ranked 12th among second basemen despite the short season. While he probably won't hit .300 and has very little power, he should hit .290 and swipe 30 bags. The Oakland AAA's lineup won't help his counting stats, but those steals really add up in roto leagues. Should finish the year as a top 10 second baseman but he's being drafted 15th.
Jose Altuve (ADP 237)
The poor man's Jemile Weeks. Worth a flier for your MI spot. After Altuve, the position gets really thin and you'll have to go with Aviles, Giavotella or Tyler Greene, who probably have no place in a 12 team mixed league.
Overrated at second base:
Brandon Phillips (ADP 53), Ryan Roberts (155), Dustin Ackley (171)
Howie Kendrick (ADP 114)
Getting no love from drafters after finishing last year as the 6th-ranked second baseman. Maybe it's because he doesn't stand out in any one category, but he's in his prime, contributes in every category and the lineup has improved around him. He'll give you similar stats to Brandon Phillips but 60 picks later.
Jason Kipnis (ADP 185)
What's not to love about Kipnis, he might be the steal of the draft at this ADP. Power and speed with a batting average that won't hurt you. He's young, so there's risk, but I expect at least a 15/15 season with a .270 average. His runs & RBI will determine the difference between him and Brandon Phillips or Ben Zobrist.
Jemile Weeks (ADP 194)
Rickie's little brother is a popular sleeper after hitting .300 last year with 22 steals in only 90 games. He finished ranked 12th among second basemen despite the short season. While he probably won't hit .300 and has very little power, he should hit .290 and swipe 30 bags. The Oakland AAA's lineup won't help his counting stats, but those steals really add up in roto leagues. Should finish the year as a top 10 second baseman but he's being drafted 15th.
Jose Altuve (ADP 237)
The poor man's Jemile Weeks. Worth a flier for your MI spot. After Altuve, the position gets really thin and you'll have to go with Aviles, Giavotella or Tyler Greene, who probably have no place in a 12 team mixed league.
Overrated at second base:
Brandon Phillips (ADP 53), Ryan Roberts (155), Dustin Ackley (171)
Saturday, March 17, 2012
2012 First Base Sleeperz™
Sleeperz™ are players who should outperform their draft position.
My analysis is based on 5x5 roto, non-keeper, 10-12 team mixed leagues. ESPN Average Draft Position in parentheses.
FIRST BASE:
Adam Dunn (ADP 203)
Yes, last year was an epic disaster, and he killed me personally in a big money league. But last year's failure is this year's discount. Over the seven seasons before 2011, Dunn's minimum was 38 home runs, and he plays in arguably the best hitters park in baseball. Everyone is in love with Paul Goldschmidt (ADP 190), but wait another round (or two) and get the guy who's already put up monster power seasons at the major league level seven times. If you can live with the low batting average, there is a lot of value here. Let Goldschmidt do it once before paying for it.
Kendrys Morales (ADP 212)
I loved Kendrys in 2009 and he rewarded me with a monster season. He continued in 2010 before his ridiculous fluke injury. The thought of him batting 5th every day behind Phat Albert has me drooling. The only thing that can derail it is health, so keep an eye on the latest updates. If Kendrys is healthy I don't see Vernon Wells or Bobby Abreu stealing many of his at bats. Kendrys gives you the power/batting average combo that is hard to find. The only player this late with a shot at .300/30/100.
Ike Davis (ADP 213)
Another guy whose value has been kept down because of fluke injuries. Forget the Valley Fever, he has experienced no symptoms and seems fine. At this price I like Ike and the new dimensions at Citi Field will help his power. His underlying numbers are so solid, and he has room to grow. .275/20/80 floor.
Lucas Duda (ADP 215)
Good stick and the shorter fences help. In certain leagues you may be able to handcuff him to Ike Davis. If Duda gets to play he is a cheaper version of Gaby Sanchez (ADP 170). His underlying stats aren't that different from Ike Davis, maybe with less upside, and his glove could hurt.
Brandon Belt (ADP 233)
Playing time is the issue but if he plays, he's the poor man's Goldschmidt - not the same raw power but going 40+ picks later. This might be a year early on Belt so don't reach for him, but you have to like his approach. He knows how to take a walk, which ends up translating into roto numbers sooner or later.
Justin Smoak (ADP 260)
Of all the first basemen going undrafted in 10 team leagues, The Smoak Monster has the best shot at fantasy relevance. Not much positive about his stats the last two seasons, but the pedigree is there and his lineup has improved. Textbook post-post-hype sleeper.
Overrated at first base:
Michael Young (ADP 81), Freddie Freeman (ADP 122) , Adam Lind (ADP 135), Carlos Lee (ADP 141), Ryan Howard (ADP 158)
My analysis is based on 5x5 roto, non-keeper, 10-12 team mixed leagues. ESPN Average Draft Position in parentheses.
FIRST BASE:
Adam Dunn (ADP 203)
Yes, last year was an epic disaster, and he killed me personally in a big money league. But last year's failure is this year's discount. Over the seven seasons before 2011, Dunn's minimum was 38 home runs, and he plays in arguably the best hitters park in baseball. Everyone is in love with Paul Goldschmidt (ADP 190), but wait another round (or two) and get the guy who's already put up monster power seasons at the major league level seven times. If you can live with the low batting average, there is a lot of value here. Let Goldschmidt do it once before paying for it.
Kendrys Morales (ADP 212)
I loved Kendrys in 2009 and he rewarded me with a monster season. He continued in 2010 before his ridiculous fluke injury. The thought of him batting 5th every day behind Phat Albert has me drooling. The only thing that can derail it is health, so keep an eye on the latest updates. If Kendrys is healthy I don't see Vernon Wells or Bobby Abreu stealing many of his at bats. Kendrys gives you the power/batting average combo that is hard to find. The only player this late with a shot at .300/30/100.
Ike Davis (ADP 213)
Another guy whose value has been kept down because of fluke injuries. Forget the Valley Fever, he has experienced no symptoms and seems fine. At this price I like Ike and the new dimensions at Citi Field will help his power. His underlying numbers are so solid, and he has room to grow. .275/20/80 floor.
Lucas Duda (ADP 215)
Good stick and the shorter fences help. In certain leagues you may be able to handcuff him to Ike Davis. If Duda gets to play he is a cheaper version of Gaby Sanchez (ADP 170). His underlying stats aren't that different from Ike Davis, maybe with less upside, and his glove could hurt.
Brandon Belt (ADP 233)
Playing time is the issue but if he plays, he's the poor man's Goldschmidt - not the same raw power but going 40+ picks later. This might be a year early on Belt so don't reach for him, but you have to like his approach. He knows how to take a walk, which ends up translating into roto numbers sooner or later.
Justin Smoak (ADP 260)
Of all the first basemen going undrafted in 10 team leagues, The Smoak Monster has the best shot at fantasy relevance. Not much positive about his stats the last two seasons, but the pedigree is there and his lineup has improved. Textbook post-post-hype sleeper.
Overrated at first base:
Michael Young (ADP 81), Freddie Freeman (ADP 122) , Adam Lind (ADP 135), Carlos Lee (ADP 141), Ryan Howard (ADP 158)
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Starting pitcher sleeperz for 2011
Because there are so many starting pitchers, and because pitching performance is so volatile from year to year, there are always plenty of bargains. In mixed leagues, I almost never pay for the top aces, since it's quite possible to build a staff of underrated starters. Focus on low WHIP, high strikeout pitchers and hope that the wins come.
In mixed leagues, here are 33 underrated starters to choose from. Investigate them and decide for yourself. Don't reach, just let them come to you and voila, you'll have your bargain pitching staff. Number in parentheses is the player's ESPN Average Draft Position. I put an asterisk next to my favorite sleeper picks.
Tier 1
Justin Verlander (40)
Ubaldo Jimenez (48)
Cole Hamels (60)
Dan Haren (62)
David Price (69)
Matt Cain (77)
Francisco Liriano* (88) - 28 years old, can still get better
Max Scherzer* (101) - struggled early in 2010, still finished with awesome numbers. About to break out.
Tier 2
Brett Anderson (134)
Colby Lewis (145)
Hiroki Kuroda (148)
Dan Hudson (150)
Tier 3
Brandon Morrow (165)
Josh Beckett (167)
Ricky Nolasco (169)
Jhoulys Chacin* (175) - lots of K's, good command, everything points to more improvement this year
Madison Bumgarner (179)
Tier 4
Ricky Romero (193)
Brian Matusz* (198) - has the pedigree, and showed improvement throughout his rookie year in the AL East
Jake Peavy (207)
James Shields (209)
Gio Gonzalez (211)
Tier 5
Ian Kennedy (213)
Jordan Zimmermann (220)
Javy Vazquez* (224) - back in the NL East, where he racked up 238 K with a 1.08 WHIP in 2009
Gavin Floyd (233)
Tier 6 (after pick 260):
James McDonald
Scott Baker
Erik Bedard
Mike Minor* - youngster has the pedigree, lots of K's, very few walks, great situation
Derek Holland
Homer Bailey
In mixed leagues, here are 33 underrated starters to choose from. Investigate them and decide for yourself. Don't reach, just let them come to you and voila, you'll have your bargain pitching staff. Number in parentheses is the player's ESPN Average Draft Position. I put an asterisk next to my favorite sleeper picks.
Tier 1
Justin Verlander (40)
Ubaldo Jimenez (48)
Cole Hamels (60)
Dan Haren (62)
David Price (69)
Matt Cain (77)
Francisco Liriano* (88) - 28 years old, can still get better
Max Scherzer* (101) - struggled early in 2010, still finished with awesome numbers. About to break out.
Tier 2
Brett Anderson (134)
Colby Lewis (145)
Hiroki Kuroda (148)
Dan Hudson (150)
Tier 3
Brandon Morrow (165)
Josh Beckett (167)
Ricky Nolasco (169)
Jhoulys Chacin* (175) - lots of K's, good command, everything points to more improvement this year
Madison Bumgarner (179)
Tier 4
Ricky Romero (193)
Brian Matusz* (198) - has the pedigree, and showed improvement throughout his rookie year in the AL East
Jake Peavy (207)
James Shields (209)
Gio Gonzalez (211)
Tier 5
Ian Kennedy (213)
Jordan Zimmermann (220)
Javy Vazquez* (224) - back in the NL East, where he racked up 238 K with a 1.08 WHIP in 2009
Gavin Floyd (233)
Tier 6 (after pick 260):
James McDonald
Scott Baker
Erik Bedard
Mike Minor* - youngster has the pedigree, lots of K's, very few walks, great situation
Derek Holland
Homer Bailey
Monday, March 14, 2011
Outfield Sleeperz for 2011
Here are some outfielders that should outperform their price, based on ESPN average draft position (ADP). Based on a 5 x 5 redraft league.
Player (ESPN ADP):
Nick Markakis (137) - better lineup this year. Unsexy but valuable, and if he adds a few HR you're golden.
Rajai Davis (143) - comparable stats to Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, or Brett Gardner, but 30 picks later.
Travis Snider (180) - 30 HR, 10 SB upside
Jason Kubel (208) - expect slight BA rebound. Can bench vs lefties
Jose Tabata (217) - a little young but upside
Dexter Fowler (226) - a little young but upside
Julio Borbon (227) - slated to start in CF, speed to burn
Coco Crisp (230)
Seth Smith (237) - Hawpe is gone. More PT. Can bench vs lefties
Will Venable (260) - power/speed upside for deep leagues
Peter Bourjos (260) - should get you 10 HR, 20 SB. Glove will keep him in the lineup
Michael Brantley (260)
Alex Gordon (260) - someday he'll be productive. Too bad it won't be at 3B
Player (ESPN ADP):
Nick Markakis (137) - better lineup this year. Unsexy but valuable, and if he adds a few HR you're golden.
Rajai Davis (143) - comparable stats to Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, or Brett Gardner, but 30 picks later.
Travis Snider (180) - 30 HR, 10 SB upside
Jason Kubel (208) - expect slight BA rebound. Can bench vs lefties
Jose Tabata (217) - a little young but upside
Dexter Fowler (226) - a little young but upside
Julio Borbon (227) - slated to start in CF, speed to burn
Coco Crisp (230)
Seth Smith (237) - Hawpe is gone. More PT. Can bench vs lefties
Will Venable (260) - power/speed upside for deep leagues
Peter Bourjos (260) - should get you 10 HR, 20 SB. Glove will keep him in the lineup
Michael Brantley (260)
Alex Gordon (260) - someday he'll be productive. Too bad it won't be at 3B
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Infield Sleeperz for 2011
Without further ado, let's get down to business. These are my picks for the top sleeperz of 2011. Sleeperz are players who outperform their price. In other words, they are significantly underrated by average draft position (ADP). I prefer auctions, but dollar values are very hard to compare from league to league due to keeper inflation and different scoring systems. For the purposes of my analysis I am assuming 5 x 5 rotisserie, 10 or 12 team mixed non-keeper leagues.
First base (ESPN ADP):
Prince Fielder (25)
Kendry Morales (75)
Ike Davis (211)
Justin Smoak (231)
Matt LaPorta (260)
Second base:
Brandon Phillips (60)
Ben Zobrist (96)
Aaron Hill (113)
Gordon Beckham (128)
Chone Figgins (130)
Shortstop:
These guys are all pretty close, just ranked in order of ADP. In other words, I'd much rather have Lowrie at 260 than Hardy at 208.
J.J. Hardy (208)
Ryan Theriot (219)
Asdrubal Cabrera (220)
Yunel Escobar (224)
Jed Lowrie (260)
Third base:
Casey McGeehee (90)
Mark Reynolds (154)
David Freese (226)
Danny Valencia (260)
Moustakas (260) - probably starts in AAA
Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (218)
Chris Iannetta (223)
J.P. Arencibia (231)
John Jaso (260)
Jesus Montero (260) - if he plays
First base (ESPN ADP):
Prince Fielder (25)
Kendry Morales (75)
Ike Davis (211)
Justin Smoak (231)
Matt LaPorta (260)
Second base:
Brandon Phillips (60)
Ben Zobrist (96)
Aaron Hill (113)
Gordon Beckham (128)
Chone Figgins (130)
Shortstop:
These guys are all pretty close, just ranked in order of ADP. In other words, I'd much rather have Lowrie at 260 than Hardy at 208.
J.J. Hardy (208)
Ryan Theriot (219)
Asdrubal Cabrera (220)
Yunel Escobar (224)
Jed Lowrie (260)
Third base:
Casey McGeehee (90)
Mark Reynolds (154)
David Freese (226)
Danny Valencia (260)
Moustakas (260) - probably starts in AAA
Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (218)
Chris Iannetta (223)
J.P. Arencibia (231)
John Jaso (260)
Jesus Montero (260) - if he plays
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